By Elliot Denman // Photo by Karthik Adimula 

RIO de JANEIRO - Form chart-watchers have often been stunned by past men’s Olympic 1500-meter results.

Consider these:

London 2012 – Algeria’s Makhoufi Taoufik wins it 3:34.08 and defending champion Asbel Kiprot of Kenya winds up 12^th.

Beijing 2008 – Kenya’s Kiprot (3:33:11) and New Zealand’s Nick Willis take gold and silver (after initial leader Rashid Ramzi’s subsequent doping DQ.)

Sydney 2000 – Kenya’s Noah Ngeny (3:32.07) stuns Hicham El Guerrouj, the Moroccan world record-breaker who then needs four more years to win it, at Athens 2004.

Barcelona 1992 – Spain’s Fermin Cacho takes advantage of slow early pace to sprint home in 3:40.12.

Seoul 1988 – Kenya’s (and Mount St. Mary’s University’s) Peter Rono (3:35.96) turns tables on Great Brit Peter Elliott.

And so it’s gone, on and on, all the way to such shock winners as Ireland’s (and Villanova’s) Ron Delany at Melbourne 1956; Luxembourg’s Josy Barthel at Helsinki 1952; New Zealand’s Jack Lovelock over USA’s Glenn Cunningham at Berlin 1936, and Britain’s Arnold Strode Jackson over world record-holding Staten Islander Abel Kiviat at Stockholm 1912.

Which brings us to Armory favorites Matthew Centrowitz, Nick Willis and Robby Andrews, heading into the 1500 at Rio’s Games of the XXXI Olympiad (prelims Tuesday morning, semifinals Thursday night, championship final Saturday night.)

Just as so many of their predecessors did, they, too, hope to beat the odds stacked against them. They may not have the best racing times in the field, but they surely do have the racing smarts to hang in with anyone in the world.

Centro took the gold at the 2016 World Indoor Championships in Portland, after placing fourth at the 2012 London Games, as well as eighth (Beijing 2015), second (Moscow 2013) and third (Daegu 2011) at the last three editions of the Outdoor Worlds, so he surely has the confidence he can run with anyone.

It’s a family affair, too.

After winning the U.S. Trials in 3:34.09, he kidded, “ I was joking with my dad (Matt Centowitz); he was a two-time Olympian and I am now, too.  Now he can’t hold that over me. A cool stat is that his first team he made (1976) he got second and the second team he made (the stay-home 1980 team), he won at the Trials.  So this was just another step, ‘like father like son.’”

On top of his 2008 Beijing Olympic silver, New Zealander Willis owns a ninth at London in 2012 and a sixth at the 2015 Beijing Worlds.

So a second podium spot – eight years after the first – would be a long delayed vision come true.

Andrews, an Armory favorite since his national-record 800 and 1000-meter clocking as a Manalapan, N.J. schoolboy sensation, won two NCAA 800 titles as a Virginia collegian, but still is one of the newer kids on this international block. 

Yet, step-by-step, he’s getting there and learning he can run in the fastest of company - 11^th at the 2015 Beijing Outdoor Worlds, then fourth at the 2016 Indoor Worlds.

Andrews has been slowly closing the gap on Centro. After his second place at the Trials, thanks to his huge kick – the style he loves – in the final half-lap, he said  “I really wanted to catch Matthew on the homestretch but I didn’t have as much left as I thought I’d have.”

But nevertheless there was joy for him at the end.

“It’s been a really long journey," he said, with a smile a mile wide. "I can’t begin to thank all of the people who have supported me. They all helped me get here.”

Latest odds listed by British wagering houses (where Olympic betting is quite a big thing) put Kiprot the heavy favorite at 1 ½ to 1; Taoufik (who also runs the 800 final) second choice at 7-1, followed by Kenya’s Elijah Manangoi (8-1), Centrowitz and Djibouti’s Ayanleh Soulemain co-fifth choices at 15-1, Willis eighth pick 26-1, with Andrews and U.S. teammate Ben Blankenship co-ninth choices at 67-1. 

Armory fans will long remember the great Centrowitz-Willis duel at the 109^th edition of the NYRR Millrose Games, Feb. 20.  Centro’s 3:50.63 is still the fastest mile run in 2016, and Willis’s 3:51.06 the second best.  In turn, Kiprop’s 3:51.48 is the quickest mile of the outdoor season.

Savvy fans, of course, realize that there’s often a world of difference between racing the shorter 1500-meter route and the mile (which is 1609 meters.)

The 1500-meter world list for 2016 thus shows the three Kenyan Olympians – Kiprop (3:29.33), Kwemoi (3:30.49) and Manangoi (3:31.19) right atop the charts with Centrowitz (3:34.09), Willis (3:34.29) and Andrews (3:34:88) listed 19^th, 22^nd

and 27^th, respectively.  Then again, those rankings aren’t completely relevant to Rio, either, because a bunch of other Kenyans are listed beyond their nation’s Olympic trio.  Just three can run per nation, of course.

So here we are with the world’s best ready to run their three and three-quarter laps around Olympic Stadium, a global audience glued to TV sets for all the action, and Armory fans knowing they’ve already seen three of the best taking their warmup laps around “the fastest indoor track in the world.”